GDP adjusted for inflation — the true measure of economic growth. Quarterly BEA advance, second, and third estimates. Two consecutive negative quarters = technical recession. Use for growth regime identification, cycle dating, and productivity analysis. Quarterly frequency.
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Yield spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and equivalent Treasuries. Measures credit risk premium demanded by investors in high-quality corporate de…
Yield spread between high-yield (junk) bonds and equivalent Treasuries. The premier measure of credit stress and risk appetite in lower-quality debt. Spikes sha…
Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. The most widely watched yield curve indicator — inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955 with a…
High-yield OAS minus investment-grade OAS — isolates the incremental risk premium for lower-quality credit. Widens when credit stress is concentrated in weaker …
Average of Chicago Fed NFCI and St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, normalized to a common scale. Positive = tighter/more stressed than average, negative = lo…
JOLTS job openings divided by BLS unemployed persons count. Above 1.0 means more open jobs than unemployed workers — historically tight labor market. Below 1.0 …
30-year fixed mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield. Measures the premium mortgage lenders charge above the risk-free benchmark. Normal range 150-200bps; e…
10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Represents the real return demanded for long-dated government bonds. Negative real yields histori…
Federal funds effective rate minus CPI YoY inflation. Measures whether monetary policy is restrictive or accommodative in real terms. Negative real rates = loos…
CBOE measure of expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500, derived from options prices. The market's fear gauge. Spikes during crises and risk-off events. Use f…
Chicago Fed composite index of 105 financial indicators covering money markets, debt, equity, and banking. Positive = tighter than average conditions, negative …
St. Louis Fed composite stress index measuring strain in U.S. financial markets. Constructed from 18 weekly data series including rates, spreads, and equity mea…